In December 2019, the first warning was given for the pandemic that plunged the whole world into a state of lethargy from which it is just beginning to emerge. COVID-19 brought far more havoc than loss of life. Many economic sectors were severely affected by the lockdowns and travel restrictions. Although it seems that the worst phase is over, it is also true that the health crisis is not over as there are still increases in cases in various regions of the world. Right now critical days are being experienced in China due to spikes that have led the government to close the country’s most populous city.
However, there are not a few places that have completely or partially lifted containment measures to reduce the transmission of the virus. This situation added to the tiredness of people for almost two years of physical distancing and confinement have raised the dynamism of tourism. This month a short holiday will be enjoyed in various countries of Christian faith. Easter will be a reflection of what we hope to see in the tourism sector in the near future. Therefore, we list four possible behaviors that we may verify with the data and information after this period.
- Return to a trend very similar to before 2019. Many of the States with the greatest contribution to the flow of tourists in the world have already relaxed the sanitary measures for exit and entry. For this reason, many people have already returned to their previous travel habits. Many destinations have also reopened their offer as much as possible to welcome the majority of travelers and thus speed up their recovery. Therefore, we could be on the verge of an almost complete return to what most people call «normality».
- Cautious increase in tourist flows. It is no secret that the world is not going through a good time. Since the end of February 2022, the war between Ukraine and Russia has increased the prices of many products and services in Europe. Likewise, in China some supply chains have been affected by the confinement of Shanghai. This may result in a modest increase in travel due to the caution of tourists at a time when short- and medium-term contingency savings and leisure travel must be valued.
- Disparate regional behaviors. Authorities on the matter agree that the next phase of the pandemic is for it to become a seasonal and regional epidemic. This prognosis is based on the fact that SarsCov2 was not fought in all areas of the world with the same discipline, seriousness and resources. Therefore, it is possible that we will observe a very different tourism recovery depending on the area of the world to be reviewed.
- A new variant or disease? Many years ago it was known that at some point the world would face a new pandemic. COVID-19 came to fulfill that forecast. However, the SarsCov2 virus is still in the process of adapting to ensure its replication, so new variants that induce new lockdowns are not impossible. Likewise, mass tourism by its nature can again facilitate the conditions for a new pathogen to affect the functioning of the world. This scenario may occur during or shortly after this holiday period or others in the future.
As we have mentioned in other posts on this blog, Market Research also includes the interpretation of major trends in local, national and international events. It is possible to foresee most scenarios in order to establish prevention and response plans in the face of new situations. However, it is also true that unforeseen events occur at all times and that for these reasons it is necessary to invest in new studies that help correct the course of brands and people.
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